World at Crossroads: From Scenarios to Action
These short summaries and discussions address highly complex global, regional, and translocal developments occurring up to March 2025, involving numerous actors, perspectives, and nuances. They do not offer comprehensive accounts or detailed analyses, and inevitably may overlook certain events, developments, or viewpoints. Instead, their purpose is to help stakeholders critically engage with the four RESPACE scenarios, stimulating reflection, strategic foresight, and deeper exploration of transformative possibilities for collaboration. Each RESPACE scenario outlines distinct, plausible future pathways but is explicitly not predictive. Users are encouraged to continuously adapt and update these Dialogue Inputs to reflect evolving contexts and emerging understandings.
New Leaders, Persistent Struggles: Latin America at a Crossroads
May 2025
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Summary & Context
Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced significant political and social shifts in recent years, highlighting both transformative change and deep-rooted challenges. Politically, a wave of new leaders has taken the helm in key countries. In Argentina, voters weary of economic crisis turned to outsider Javier Milei, a far-right libertarian, electing him president in October 2023. Milei has promised radical changes – from dollarising the economy to abolishing the central bank – jolting the region with his anti-establishment style. In Central America, Guatemala inaugurated Bernardo Arévalo as president in January 2024 after he won on an anti-corruption platform. This is a rare victory for reformers, although the handover of government was fraught with legal battles by the old guard. Many countries are grappling with instability. Peru continues to face governance turmoil after years of impeachment dramas and protests. In Haiti, the security vacuum has worsened, with gang violence rampant. Several Caribbean nations are navigating political uncertainty. For instance, CARICOM members and neighbouring countries are considering various options for intervention to restore order in Haiti.
On a positive note, there are renewed regional cooperation efforts. Brazilian President Lula is championing Latin American integration – reviving the UNASUR (Union of South American Nations) bloc, hosting an Amazon Summit to unite countries in protecting the rainforest and positioning Latin America as a coherent voice on the global stage. Economic challenges, however, cast a long shadow. Inflation is a top concern. While it eased in some countries in late 2024, others face alarming levels. Although on slow downward trend, inflation in Argentina remained in triple digits (117.3%) for 2024, eroding savings and incomes. Debt crises loom as well. Smaller economies such as Suriname and Ecuador have struggled under debt burdens and are seeking to restructure them. Trade patterns are shifting. The role of China as a trade partner and investor in South America grows year by year, as exemplified by Chinese companies investing heavily in Amazon oil and lithium mining. This realignment offers new opportunities (financing infrastructure, commodity exports) but also raises concerns about dependence. Migration trends are another defining issue – millions of people continue to flee the prolonged crisis in Venezuela, straining neighbours Colombia, Brazil and Peru. Many Caribbean people are migrating in search of jobs or fleeing climate impacts. Migration routes north (through Central America and Mexico to the United States) have seen record numbers, putting humanitarian and political pressure on transit countries.
Socially, the region is alive with grassroots movements driving change. Climate activism has reached new heights. Indigenous and youth groups across the Amazon and Andes are protesting oil drilling and deforestation, successfully pushing initiatives such as the referendum in Ecuador to halt oil extraction in Yasuní National Park, a landmark win for indigenous rights and climate protection. Indigenous rights movements are influential from Brazil – where indigenous leaders now have a stronger voice under Lula’s government – to Bolivia and Chile, where constitutional debates and land rights protests underscore indigenous demands for respect and autonomy. Citizens have also mobilised for better governance. Corruption scandals in several countries (Guatemala, Brazil, Honduras) have sparked public outrage and demands for accountability. In places such as Cuba and Nicaragua, courageous if sporadic protests call for greater freedom despite heavy government repression. This mix of economic hardship and activist energy means protests large and small could continue to erupt. Examples include teacher strikes in Puerto Rico (2022), mass demonstrations in Panama against cost-of-living increases (2023) and recent street pressure in Haiti for security and elections. In essence, the Caribbean and South America are in flux – politically diverse and economically pressured, but with societies increasingly vocal in claiming their rights and shaping their future.
Scenario Parallels/Contrasts
Regional developments present a vivid blend of all four scenarios. The rise of leaders such as Milei – nationalist, anti-system, willing to break norms – and the turns in countries such as Nicaragua and El Salvador to see presidents being emboldened to rule by and increase executive powers reflect Walls scenario tendencies. In Walls futures, popular individual leaders and anti-establishment sentiments gain ground, which is evident in Latin American political swings. Policies favouring security crackdowns (for example, President Nayib Bukele’s mass incarceration of gang members in El Salvador) and reduced civic freedoms align with the isolationist hard-line governance in Walls. Conversely, the strong regional cooperation impulses evoke a Towers scenario. Latin American nations banding together, whether to protect the Amazon or to assert diplomatic autonomy (such as CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) presenting a united Latin American front globally), mirrors the Towers theme of powerful regional blocs addressing challenges as a united front. The Amazon Summit and renewed South–South partnerships (even engagement with BRICS, which Argentina was invited to join) show a move away from reliance on Western-led institutions toward regional solutions – classic Towers behaviour.
Grassroots movements in the region are emblematic of the Bridges scenario. From indigenous alliances spanning countries to feminist movements (the Green Wave for legal abortion swept Argentina, then influenced Chile and Mexico), Latin American civil society often works across borders and issues, forming networks that demand justice and environmental protection. These bottom–up forces correspond to the empowered civic actors and interconnected struggles in the Bridges scenario. In some cases, Bridges and Towers even intersect; for example, regional coalitions of NGOs influencing the agenda of intergovernmental bodies on climate and indigenous rights. Finally, aspects of the Maze scenario are present in Latin American engagement with global systems. Many countries still work within the UN, IMF and other multilateral frameworks to solve problems; for example, seeking support from IMF programmes to stabilise economies or advocating globally for climate finance and drug policy reform. Latin American patience with the global Maze is mixed, however. Frustration with inequitable global rules (trade, finance) is leading some countries to chart their own course (more Towers) or to seek systemic change (somewhat in the spirit of Maze). In summary, Latin America and the Caribbean encapsulate a struggle between Walls-style authoritarian populism and Bridges-style people power, all within a context that is increasingly Towers-oriented in regional unity, while still navigating (and sometimes challenging) the Maze of global institutions.
Discussion Questions
For Activists and Community Leaders: How can social movements in Latin America maintain momentum and protect their wins in the face of political shifts? For example, with a conservative such as Milei in power in Argentina, how will climate activists and women’s rights groups strategise to defend policies (such as environmental regulations or reproductive rights) they achieved under previous governments? Conversely, in countries where reformist leaders have won (Arévalo in Guatemala), how can activists transition from protest to constructive partnership to ensure that popular energy translates into lasting institutional changes (such as anti-corruption measures or indigenous autonomy statutes)? Also, as many of the struggles across the region – climate change, indigenous rights, anti-extractivism – transcend borders, how can activists enhance their cross-country networks? Think of Amazonian indigenous communities forming an alliance spanning Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, etc. to present a united front against deforestation.
For Donors, International Agencies and Policymakers: What forms of support are most critical for Latin American countries facing economic and social strain? Should international financial institutions adjust their approach? For instance, offering more flexible debt relief or climate-related funding to countries such as those in the Caribbean hit by hurricanes and debt (aligning with Maze ideals of global cooperation). How can regional bodies such as the OAS (Organization of American States) or new forums such as the proposed Amazon alliance be bolstered to handle conflicts and democratic crises, in lieu of external (US or European) intervention? How should (or can) migration be collaboratively addressed? What responsibilities do destination countries (United States, Canada, Europe) have to provide development aid or humanitarian visas? How can Latin American states coordinate to protect migrant rights and manage flows humanely?
For the Private Sector: Businesses in Latin America are operating amidst both opportunity and turmoil. What role can domestic and multinational companies play in stabilising economies and supporting social needs? For instance, in hyper-inflationary Argentina, can the private sector be part of the solution (through wage agreements, price stabilisation pacts or investment commitments) to restore confidence and avoid deeper crisis? In the resource-rich countries, how might mining and agribusiness companies respond to the powerful indigenous and environmental movements? Could they proactively adopt stricter environmental safeguards, benefit-sharing with local communities and consultation practices to reduce conflict? There is also an emerging market angle in terms of the Latin American push for green energy and digital expansion. Can private investors seize this in a way that also empowers local entrepreneurs and addresses inequality? For example, investing in community solar projects or tech training programmes.
For Local Communities: Latin American communities often bear the brunt of both economic hardship and political instability. How are they innovating to improve their situation? In places with weak governance, are we seeing local self-governance or mutual aid filling the void? For example, neighbourhood security patrols in areas where police are absent or community kitchens (ollas comunes) in Peru that emerged during pandemic and economic crisis. How can local initiatives such as these be scaled up or supported without co-opting their grassroots nature? Moreover, in indigenous territories and Afro-descendant communities, traditional knowledge and organisation have proven effective in managing land and resolving disputes. What can national societies learn from these local practices of consensus and sustainability? As climate change intensifies (Amazon droughts, Caribbean storms), how are local communities adapting? What do they need – in terms of resources or rights – to lead adaptation efforts on their own terms?